Monday, April 26, 2010

What would happen if all the oil reserves in the world get exhausted?

It's not IF but WHEN... and for all practical purposes, that will be in the next 30-80 years, depending on where you get the data.


We don't have good solutions as yet - hydroelectric is definitely not available enough to make up more than 1-2% of energy coming from oil and other alternatives are also not developed enough/capable of being brought on line in sufficient quantity to make up the difference.


Coal - with all the huge environmental issues it brings - is likely to fill the gap although it will bring long term problems.


However, as oil gets depleted, the price will continue to rise ($126 is nothing compared to, say 20 years, from now) until it becomes far too expensive to burn and solutions will happen. Unfortunately, lack of long term planning means these solutions will be far from optimal.





You can probably expect:


- Severe economic disruption, possibly leading to conflict (war)


- Dramatic changes in lifestyles (e.g. cutback in flying/driving, small cars, less aircon, less disposable lifestyles)


- Small scale wars over remaining oil reserves


- Rapid development of alternative energy technologies and technologies/processes that save energy


- Recycling of plastics, even from old landfills


- Much more use of LNG, coal and other fossil fuels


etc.What would happen if all the oil reserves in the world get exhausted?
It''s elementary economics. As the petroleum resources become depleted the products become scarce and the cost of production rises. As the costs rise, the price rises. When the price of petroleum products reaches a point higher than that of the alternatives, consumers will switch to using alternatives.





No regulation is necessary. No incentive programs are needed. When people find they can use other power sources for less than the cost of oil, they will switch of their own accord.





The same is true for plastic products. Alternatives exist, but they are prohibitively expensive at this time. The price of alternatives will go down as the become more commonly available and, as the cost of oil-derived products rises, people will switch based on price.





The hardest part will be finding inexpensive alternatives to baby oil and Vaseline. Even they will eventually be replaced with vegetable oil-based products.What would happen if all the oil reserves in the world get exhausted?
People would have to find alternative resources. Corn and coal would become valuable commodities again. Did you know plastic can be made from the stuff? Did you also know the United States has the largest coal deposits in the known world?





One of the benefits of having to shift from petroleum would be the Arab world would go back to settling their disputes with scimitars and flintlocks again.
By the time that happens, it wont matter any longer. Oil is running out of time as the premier fuel. Twenty years from now, it will probably be obsolete as a source of energy.


Plastics wouldn't be a problem either, hemp plants produce a fiber that is super strong and can be made into plastics.
No problem, there are other sources of energy to rely on, such as hydroelectricity. However, plastic products can no longer be manufactured as they are made of petroleum. This may be a problem.
The oil companies would invest more into electric and solar powered cars real quick.
then those evil oil companies would get what they finally deserve... heehee
It will lead simply to alternate energy sources.
Hydrogen fuel cells will become all the rage.

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